At a glance
At the 2024 Italian Grand Prix, FP2 rank and final qualifying rank moved together (Spearman ρ = 0.7489, n = 20), but only 2 drivers kept the same position.
- Rank correlation0.7489Spearman ρ · 20 paired drivers
- Top five retained4 / 5FP2 top five also in Q top five
- Within two places9 / 20FP2 rank to final qualifying rank
- Mean absolute shift3.30positions across the field
A strong signal, from one weekend
Friday practice is a useful early reference because every driver records a timed lap and the order can be compared directly with Saturday qualifying. At Monza in 2024, the official FIA FP2 classification and final qualifying classification give a complete 20-driver sample. Ranking those two tables produces a Spearman rank correlation of 0.7489: drivers nearer the front in FP2 tended, on this weekend, to qualify nearer the front too.
The result is an association between two session rankings, not a forecast rule. FP2 and qualifying are different sessions with different preparation and run plans. The FIA classification sheets identify position and lap times, but do not record a common fuel load, tyre age, traffic level, or weather state for each lap. This sample therefore cannot isolate what caused a driver’s later position or establish how practice performs across a season.
The front held together more than the midfield
Four of the five fastest FP2 drivers remained in qualifying’s top five. Lando Norris moved from second to first, Oscar Piastri from fourth to second, Charles Leclerc from fifth to fourth, and Carlos Sainz from third to fifth. Lewis Hamilton was the exception in that group: he topped FP2 and qualified sixth. The top end looked stable in aggregate, but exact positions were not.
The overlap narrows farther down the order: seven of the ten drivers in FP2’s top ten also qualified in the top ten. Three drivers outside that Friday group—Verstappen, Perez and Albon—made the Saturday top ten. This is a useful way to read the correlation: the broad front-to-back order carried information, but it did not lock in the final cutoff or resolve who would gain the most.
Only Tsunoda (P16) and Zhou (P20) repeated their FP2 rank. Nine of 20 drivers finished within two places, and average absolute movement was 3.30 positions; five moved at least five. Strong overall correlation did not prevent meaningful individual changes.
Large swings in both directions
Verstappen and Perez each improved seven places (P14/P15 to P7/P8); Albon gained four (P13 to P9). Bottas fell from P11 to P19 and Stroll from P10 to P17. These ranks alone do not reveal setup or strategy causes.
The fastest FP2 lap was Hamilton’s 1:20.738; Norris’s pole lap in Q3 was 1:19.327, a raw difference of 1.411 seconds. That subtraction is not a clean measure of improvement: it compares a practice best with a qualifying lap from another session, without matched fuel, tyre age, traffic, or track state. The ranks are the safer comparison here, and even they describe only this Monza weekend.
The signed chart below shows how far and which direction each driver moved. A positive value means a move toward the front of the qualifying order (FP2 rank minus qualifying rank); a negative value means a move toward the rear. The companion distribution groups the same 20 observations by the size of the move. The full table preserves each driver’s FP2 best lap and both session ranks for checking.
FP2-to-qualifying rank movement at Monza (2024)
Position movement
Positive = gained · negative = lost · zero-centered scale −8 to +8 positions
−8 lost0+8 gained
- Lando NorrisFP2 P2 → Qual P1+1 positions
- Oscar PiastriFP2 P4 → Qual P2+2 positions
- George RussellFP2 P6 → Qual P3+3 positions
- Charles LeclercFP2 P5 → Qual P4+1 positions
- Carlos SainzFP2 P3 → Qual P5-2 positions
- Lewis HamiltonFP2 P1 → Qual P6-5 positions
- Max VerstappenFP2 P14 → Qual P7+7 positions
- Sergio PerezFP2 P15 → Qual P8+7 positions
- Alexander AlbonFP2 P13 → Qual P9+4 positions
- Nico HulkenbergFP2 P7 → Qual P10-3 positions
- Fernando AlonsoFP2 P9 → Qual P11-2 positions
- Daniel RicciardoFP2 P8 → Qual P12-4 positions
- Kevin MagnussenFP2 P12 → Qual P13-1 positions
- Pierre GaslyFP2 P18 → Qual P14+4 positions
- Esteban OconFP2 P19 → Qual P15+4 positions
- Yuki TsunodaFP2 P16 → Qual P160 positions
- Lance StrollFP2 P10 → Qual P17-7 positions
- Franco ColapintoFP2 P17 → Qual P18-1 positions
- Valtteri BottasFP2 P11 → Qual P19-8 positions
- Zhou GuanyuFP2 P20 → Qual P200 positions
Positive values indicate movement toward the front of the qualifying order; negative values indicate movement toward the rear.
| Driver | Position Label | Signed Position Change |
|---|---|---|
| Lando Norris | FP2 P2 → Qual P1 | 1 |
| Oscar Piastri | FP2 P4 → Qual P2 | 2 |
| George Russell | FP2 P6 → Qual P3 | 3 |
| Charles Leclerc | FP2 P5 → Qual P4 | 1 |
| Carlos Sainz | FP2 P3 → Qual P5 | -2 |
| Lewis Hamilton | FP2 P1 → Qual P6 | -5 |
| Max Verstappen | FP2 P14 → Qual P7 | 7 |
| Sergio Perez | FP2 P15 → Qual P8 | 7 |
| Alexander Albon | FP2 P13 → Qual P9 | 4 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | FP2 P7 → Qual P10 | -3 |
| Fernando Alonso | FP2 P9 → Qual P11 | -2 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | FP2 P8 → Qual P12 | -4 |
| Kevin Magnussen | FP2 P12 → Qual P13 | -1 |
| Pierre Gasly | FP2 P18 → Qual P14 | 4 |
| Esteban Ocon | FP2 P19 → Qual P15 | 4 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | FP2 P16 → Qual P16 | 0 |
| Lance Stroll | FP2 P10 → Qual P17 | -7 |
| Franco Colapinto | FP2 P17 → Qual P18 | -1 |
| Valtteri Bottas | FP2 P11 → Qual P19 | -8 |
| Zhou Guanyu | FP2 P20 → Qual P20 | 0 |
How far FP2 rank shifted by qualifying at Monza (n = 20)
Driver Count
drivers out of 20 paired drivers · 2024 Italian Grand Prix
| Movement Bucket | Driver Count |
|---|---|
| Exact match | 2 |
| Move 1–2 positions | 7 |
| Move 3–4 positions | 6 |
| Move 5+ positions | 5 |
All 20 paired classifications
| Driver | FP2 rank | FP2 best lap | Qualifying rank | Position change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lando Norris | 2 | 1:20.741 | 1 | +1 |
| Oscar Piastri | 4 | 1:20.858 | 2 | +2 |
| George Russell | 6 | 1:21.086 | 3 | +3 |
| Charles Leclerc | 5 | 1:20.892 | 4 | +1 |
| Carlos Sainz | 3 | 1:20.841 | 5 | -2 |
| Lewis Hamilton | 1 | 1:20.738 | 6 | -5 |
| Max Verstappen | 14 | 1:21.610 | 7 | +7 |
| Sergio Perez | 15 | 1:21.678 | 8 | +7 |
| Alexander Albon | 13 | 1:21.592 | 9 | +4 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 7 | 1:21.140 | 10 | -3 |
| Fernando Alonso | 9 | 1:21.316 | 11 | -2 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | 8 | 1:21.300 | 12 | -4 |
| Kevin Magnussen | 12 | 1:21.499 | 13 | -1 |
| Pierre Gasly | 18 | 1:21.819 | 14 | +4 |
| Esteban Ocon | 19 | 1:21.867 | 15 | +4 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | 16 | 1:21.735 | 16 | +0 |
| Lance Stroll | 10 | 1:21.363 | 17 | -7 |
| Franco Colapinto | 17 | 1:21.784 | 18 | -1 |
| Valtteri Bottas | 11 | 1:21.461 | 19 | -8 |
| Zhou Guanyu | 20 | 1:22.223 | 20 | +0 |
Sources and method
FIA Documents 18 (FP2) and 48 (final qualifying) pair 20 drivers’ unique ranks. Spearman ρ = 1−6Σd²/[n(n²−1)] = 0.7489, with Σd²=334 and n=20. Mean absolute movement = 66/20 = 3.30 positions; “within two” means ±2. The files do not report per-driver fuel, tyre, traffic or weather. This is one event.
Sources: FIA 2024 Italian Grand Prix, P2 Classification, Document 18; FIA 2024 Italian Grand Prix, Final Qualifying Classification, Document 48. Browse more in Practice Analysis; compare the longer career view in Hamilton’s 2024 teammate results and the history of one-lap performance in Senna’s championship campaigns.